By John Sage Melbourne
Chaos is not dangerous till it starts to look organized.
Everyone is searching for the magic formula. It does not exist. The world of money is among turmoil and the only patterns are the exact same that exist in the froth of the ocean. This axiom is potentially the most crucial of all and is the crucial to becoming a better speculator that the most educated and gifted experts.Many get abundant authors are offering the illusion of order as this is what sells. Any get abundant technique can work when you are fortunate,and most of the stories being offered are not based on a noise,ongoing system that works and can be repeated.
Minor Axiom V: Be careful the Historian’s Trap
About 99% of the population believes that history repeats itself. History might duplicate itself,however the vast majority of the time it does not. Suppose event A was followed by event B in the past. Next time that event A occurs,there is absolutely no factor to assume that event B is about to follow.The marketplace makes no predictions of itself and uses no magic formula to forecast itself.
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Minor Axiom VI: Be careful the Chartist’s illusion
The false premise of the chartist is that he knows that the market can be anticipated if he can simply determine the pattern. The fact is the easiest of all descriptions: the market has no patterns.A part of the chartist’s illusion is the pattern line,always attracted retrospect,which purports to show order in what is essentially a random and disorganised time series of rates.Fund supervisors and sales people use this seeming order of pattern,usually up,as a so called forecast tool. This is just the basis of delusion.
Minor Axiom VIIBeware the Connection and Causality Misconceptions
Over and again people see cause and effect connections in the share market and even generate income on their predictions. The connections that they see are in reality not based on anything other than a passing association or most likely either delusion or luck.The human mind tries to find order in the turmoil,however this order is not readily available in the real market place.Speculative methodBe careful of seeing order where it does not exist. This does not suggest that you can not discover a good bet or an useful investment,however keep in mind that the overwhelming influence of random possibility. (Gunther does not use the term “random possibility” however instead talks of “luck”).You are always handling turmoil and must be all set to respond when ever what ever is going to take place,happens.
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